A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
